Illinois Elections Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds
Illinois's 2026 contests for governor, U.S. Senate and the U.S. House, set out race by race in ballot order, each with its prediction-market price beside the dates Illinois voters can cast a ballot.
The ballot
7 racesAll politics →Illinois Governor Odds 2026
Illinois Senate Odds 2026
Illinois 2nd District Odds 2026
| Race | Leader | Price | 24h | Other | Volume | Election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. House 5 races | ||||||
| Illinois 4th District Odds 20264th District · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 96%No 4% | 96%-2400 | up 1 points over 24h | No 4% | Kalshi 13K contracts · Polymarket $62K | — |
| Illinois 8th District Odds 20268th District · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 95%No 5% | 95%-1900 | — | No 5% | Kalshi 8K contracts · Polymarket $22K | — |
| Illinois 11th District Odds 202611th District · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 96%No 4% | 96%-2400 | — | No 4% | Kalshi 1K contracts · Polymarket $47K | — |
| Illinois 17th District Odds 202617th District · 2 outcomes · Kalshi · 2 venues | Democratic Party 96%No 5% | 96%-2400 | up 1 points over 24h | No 5% | Kalshi 7K contracts · Polymarket $32K | — |
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Top Illinois Election Markets
The rows follow the ballot, not the money. The governor's race comes first, then the U.S. Senate race, then the U.S. House districts from the 1st to the 17th. Each row quotes both parties' contracts and links to the race's market page, and a district prints once its page is published, as the 2nd, the 4th, the 8th, the 11th and the 17th have.
Several House races have no incumbent on the ballot. In the 2nd, 4th, 7th, 8th and 9th districts the member listed by the Clerk of the House on October 1, 2026 is not among the State Board of Elections' candidates, so each of those contracts prices a new member. The ballot also carries attorney general, secretary of state, comptroller and treasurer; those offices join the list if an exchange prices them.
What Moves Illinois Election Markets
Turnout windows come first. Early voting opened at election authorities' offices on September 24, 2026 and reaches permanent polling places from October 19 to November 2. Online registration closes October 18, applications for a mail ballot must arrive by October 29, and grace-period registration and voting run through November 3.
The count follows its own dates. Election authorities with websites post their count of uncounted ballots within 48 hours of the polls closing, mail ballots postmarked by Election Day are tabulated through November 17, and the State Board of Elections canvasses and proclaims the results by December 4. A close House race can keep its contracts open well past election night.
Why Illinois Election Prediction Markets
A forecast model publishes one number; an election contract is traded on both sides, so its price shows what traders will pay for each party's win at any moment of the campaign. Every row here quotes both sides, never only the leader. The contracts pay on settlement rules rather than headlines: Kalshi waits for the winner to be sworn in, though a consensus of media projections can bring its determination forward, and Polymarket's rules name the calls or certification it follows. That gap matters in Illinois, where the State Board of Elections has until December 4 to proclaim statewide results. A projection is never reported here as a result.
Questions readers ask
How do election prediction markets work?
An election contract pays a fixed amount if a named party wins a named race, such as the Illinois governor's race on November 3, 2026, and nothing otherwise. Traders set its price, which reads as the probability they give that party.
What is on the Illinois ballot on November 3, 2026?
Governor and lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, comptroller, treasurer, a U.S. Senate seat and all seventeen U.S. House seats are among the contests, per the State Board of Elections' candidate lists of October 16, 2026.
When do Illinois election contracts settle?
After the winner takes office, under Kalshi's rules: it lists an expected settlement of January 4, 2027 for the Senate and House contracts and January 14, 2027 for governor, with earlier determination possible once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner.
When can I vote early in Illinois in 2026?
From September 24, 2026 at election authorities' offices and from October 19 to November 2 at permanent polling places, per the State Board of Elections' calendar. Grace-period registration and voting continue through November 3.
Are election prediction markets legal in Illinois?
The legal status page reports the Illinois Gaming Board's letters to prediction-market venues and the October 2, 2026 federal court ruling in Chicago, with dates, and stops there. Nothing on Illinois Predictions is legal advice.