Illinois prediction market guides follow a single contract from its rule to its payout, built on the markets this site covers. Standing is a separate question, kept on the legal status page.
Bears playoff odds price one yes-or-no question: whether Chicago finishes among the NFC's playoff qualifiers. This guide shows how that contract reads, when it can settle early and what decides it.
· Read guide →The Illinois gas price contract settles on AAA's statewide average for regular gasoline, read on the date the contract names. This guide follows one invented rung from listing to payout.
· Read guide →Chicago temperature contracts settle on a reading recorded at Midway or O'Hare after the day ends, and each exchange names its own airport. This guide carries one invented day through both sets of rules.
· Read guide →The Illinois Gaming Board has sent prediction-market venues cease-and-desist letters, and a federal judge in Chicago has enjoined state officials, an order Illinois is appealing. This page reports both by date and draws no conclusion.
Status as of November 6, 2026 · · See the record →The Illinois Gaming Board told Kalshi to cease and desist in 2025, and a federal judge has since enjoined state officials in Kalshi's case, an order Illinois is appealing. This page reports both by date.
Status as of November 6, 2026 · · See the record →A guide on Illinois Predictions takes one contract a reader in the state meets on this site and follows it from the rule that creates it to the record that pays it. The daily gas ladder pays on AAA's statewide average for regular gasoline, never on the Chicago Metro figure or any other city's. The Bears playoff contract pays on any of the NFC's seven postseason places and can settle early on a clinch or an elimination. The Chicago temperature rows pay on a reading at Midway or at O'Hare, and which airport counts is written into each exchange's rules. A general explanation of what a prediction market is lives elsewhere and is not repeated here. The guides are listed alphabetically by title, and each one links the market pages and boards it explains, from the Illinois gas prices page to the Chicago weather page.
Three things move this index, and none of them is a price. The rules come first: an exchange can change the station, the data source, the rounding or the fallback a contract settles on between one listing and the next, so every guide is read against the current terms at each review. The calendar comes second. A gas or weather contract settles every day, while the Bears contract runs to the end of an NFL regular season that finishes in January 2027, unless a clinch or an elimination settles it sooner. The state record comes third. Whether an exchange may offer any of these contracts to someone in Illinois is not a mechanic, and it is kept, with a date on every item, on the legal status page.
A percentage beside an Illinois contract is the price of a Yes that pays $1 if a stated outcome happens, read as an implied probability. It is neither a forecast from this site nor a tip. That reading holds only when the stated outcome is clear, and the outcome is often narrower than the headline on a board suggests: one statewide gas figure rather than the pump price, one airport rather than the city, one of seven places rather than a title. Two exchanges listing what looks like the same Chicago question can pay on different readings, so a guide explains how to read both rather than recommending either. None of this is legal or financial advice.
On a named record, and each guide says which: AAA's statewide average for regular gasoline for the gas ladder, a recorded reading at Midway or O'Hare for a Chicago temperature row, and the NFL's official playoff field for the Bears contract.
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the stated outcome happens, read as the market's implied chance of that outcome. It is not a forecast from Illinois Predictions, and the guides set out how the number is most often misread.
Because they read different airports. Kalshi's Chicago high and low settle on the National Weather Service's Midway climate report, and Polymarket's on routine hourly reports from O'Hare, so one day can pay different bands on the two exchanges.
Kalshi lists the Illinois gas ladder, the Bears playoff contract and the Chicago temperature rows, and Polymarket lists its own Bears playoff and Chicago temperature contracts. The guides name the venue behind each rule and take no view on which anyone should use.
Illinois Predictions keeps that question on its legal status page, which sets out the Illinois Gaming Board's cease-and-desist letters to prediction-market exchanges and the rest of the state's record with the date of each. No guide draws a conclusion, and nothing in them is legal advice.