Illinois Economy Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds
Illinois economy prediction markets settle on figures published about the state, led by the daily contract on AAA's Illinois average for regular gasoline, with jobs and tax figures among those that can follow.
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Gasoline leads this page. Kalshi lists a daily Illinois series, KXAAAGASDIL, on AAA's statewide average for a gallon of regular, and each rung of the ladder asks whether that average lands strictly above a price. The Illinois gas prices page carries the open ladder and every day that has settled since the first contract, for August 26, 2026.
Other contracts belong here when their answer is a number published about Illinois: the statewide unemployment rate the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases each month, a tax rate the Department of Revenue publishes, or a line in the state budget. They also need Prediction Genius, which supplies the site's prices, to assign them to Illinois rather than to a national category, since a question that reads the same in every state belongs on a national page. Illinois's races and club seasons sit in the markets catalog, sorted by subject on the politics page and the sports page.
What Moves Illinois Economy Markets
The gas ladder turns over every day. AAA posts a new Illinois average daily, and trading on each date's contract stops at 11:59 p.m. Eastern the night before, 10:59 p.m. in Chicago. Crude oil, which the Energy Information Administration calls the largest part of the retail price, moves every state's figure at once, and AAA's statewide number spans metro areas from Chicago to Peoria and Springfield.
State law sets other dates. Illinois's motor fuel tax adjusts each July 1 with the Consumer Price Index, but Public Act 104-0468, signed June 16, 2026, suspended the July 2026 increase through December 31, 2026, leaving gasoline at $0.483 a gallon. The jobless rate arrives monthly, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics marks the newest month preliminary until it is revised. The Fiscal Year 2027 budget is enacted, so the next budget figures come with the governor's proposal for the following year.
Why Illinois Economy Prediction Markets
An economic contract names a figure, a publisher and a line, and asks whether the published number clears it. Its price, read as a probability, moves with every data point before the release rather than only on the day. The rules decide the edge cases, so they are the part to read first. Kalshi's gas contract takes AAA's figure as posted at expiration and ignores later revisions, a reading exactly on a rung settles No, and a month's unemployment rate is a preliminary estimate when it first appears. Where two exchanges quote a line, the figure shown is the cheaper Yes, with its exchange named.
Questions readers ask
How do economic prediction markets work?
An economic contract names a published figure and a line, such as AAA's Illinois average for a gallon of regular gasoline on a given date, and pays a fixed amount if the figure lands above the line. Its price reads as the probability traders give that outcome.
Which Illinois economic numbers can have prediction markets?
Figures published about Illinois on a fixed schedule: AAA's daily statewide gas price, which Kalshi lists as a daily contract, the monthly unemployment rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the tax rates the Department of Revenue publishes, and the budget the General Assembly enacts.
How do Illinois economy markets settle?
On the figure the contract's rules name, as its publisher posts it. Kalshi's Illinois gas contract settles on AAA's statewide average for the named date, ignores any revision AAA posts after expiration, and pays Yes only when the figure is strictly above the rung.
When does the Illinois gas tax change?
Each July 1, when the motor fuel tax adjusts with the Consumer Price Index. Public Act 104-0468 suspended the July 1, 2026 adjustment through December 31, 2026, so gasoline stays at $0.483 a gallon, the rate in force since July 1, 2025.
Are economic prediction markets legal in Illinois?
The legal status page on this site reports what the Illinois Gaming Board and the federal court in Chicago have done about prediction markets, including the court's October 2, 2026 ruling, each with a date. It draws no conclusion and is not legal or financial advice.