Illinois politics prediction markets price the state's 2026 contests as questions about parties: who holds the governor's office, the U.S. Senate seat Dick Durbin holds, and each congressional district.
| Market | Leader | Price | 24h | Other | Volume | Election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois 8th District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 95%No 5% | 95%-1900 | — | No 5% | Kalshi 8K contracts · Polymarket $22K | — |
| Illinois 11th District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 96%No 4% | 96%-2400 | — | No 4% | Kalshi 1K contracts · Polymarket $47K | — |
| Illinois 17th District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Kalshi · 2 venues | Democratic Party 96%No 5% | 96%-2400 | up 1 points over 24h | No 5% | Kalshi 7K contracts · Polymarket $32K | — |
| Illinois 2nd District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 96%No 4% | 96%-2400 | up 3 points over 24h | No 4% | Kalshi 1K contracts · Polymarket $36K | — |
Polymarket priced a Democratic hold at 98% and Kalshi at 99.5% on October 16, 2026, which means Obama's October 12 endorsement of Stratton reinforces a seat traders already expect her party to keep, eight days before her only forum with Tracy.
Illinois Predictions staff ·
The governor's race anchors the Illinois politics board. JB Pritzker, a Democrat and governor since January 14, 2019, faces Republican Darren Bailey on November 3, 2026, with Independent Collin Corbett also on the State Board of Elections' list. Kalshi and Polymarket both price it, and both settle on the party, not the candidate.
The Senate race is for the Class II seat Dick Durbin holds; Durbin is not on the ballot, and Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton is the Democratic candidate against Republican Don Tracy. Below the statewide contests sit Illinois's U.S. House districts, where Democrats hold fourteen of the seventeen seats on the Clerk of the House's October 1, 2026 list. District pages include the 2nd, the 4th, the 8th, the 11th and the 17th.
Campaign events can move these prices, and a face-to-face meeting is the clearest test: the only Pritzker and Bailey debate, held in Chicago on October 13, 2026, was the one time the two nominees answered the same questions. The fixed dates set the pace. Online registration closes October 18, early voting at permanent polling places opens October 19, and grace-period registration and voting continue through Election Day.
After the polls close, the timetable shifts to counting. Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day and received afterward are tabulated through November 17, county canvasses finish by November 24, and the State Board of Elections proclaims results by December 4.
A poll measures one sample on one week; a contract price is set by traders who must pay to hold a view and are paid only if it is right. In Illinois the contracts are written on parties. Kalshi pays its Democratic or Republican contract on the party of the official sworn in or inaugurated, while Polymarket's governor market pays on a race call by the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC, or on certification if they do not agree. A projection on election night is therefore a reason for prices to move, not a settlement, and this site reports a result only once it is certified.
A politics contract asks a yes-or-no question, such as whether the Democratic Party wins the Illinois governor's race on November 3, 2026, and pays a fixed amount if it does. The price traders pay reads as the probability they give that outcome.
The governor's race, the U.S. Senate race for the seat Dick Durbin holds, and Illinois's U.S. House districts, all on the November 3, 2026 ballot. Each contract asks which party wins the seat.
On the party. Kalshi pays on the party of the governor inaugurated or the member sworn in, so its contracts are labeled Democratic and Republican rather than Pritzker or Bailey.
JB Pritzker and Christian Mitchell for the Democrats, Darren Bailey and Aaron B. Del Mar for the Republicans, and Collin Corbett and Carolyn Schofield as Independents, per the State Board of Elections' candidate list of October 16, 2026.
The legal status page lists what the Illinois Gaming Board and the federal court in Chicago have done, each dated, including the October 2, 2026 ruling on preliminary-injunction motions. It makes no finding about any exchange and is not legal advice.