Polymarket
KalshiIllinois's 16th District: Nolley Puts a Democrat Back on the Ballot, but LaHood's Margins Anchor the Board
The Illinois 16th District odds 2026 board treats Darin LaHood's seat as a Republican hold, and the market rests on the two most recent results in the district: a 97,296-vote LaHood win in 2022 and a 2024 race in which no Democrat appeared on the ballot at all. Paul Nolley, the Democratic nominee, gives Illinois voters in the 16th a two-party choice again on November 3, 2026. The live board above carries Kalshi's and Polymarket's current prices for both parties.
The Illinois 16th District Candidates
The State Board of Elections' website candidate list for the general election, as of October 23, 2026, names two candidates for the 16th Congressional District: Paul Nolley for the Democrats and Darin LaHood for the Republicans. Both filed on October 27, 2025. No third-party or independent filing appears for the district, so the ballot is a straight choice between the two parties the venues price.
LaHood is the incumbent. The Clerk of the House member list, published October 1, 2026, records him as the Republican member for the 16th with Peoria as his home town, and the Clerk's data shows he was sworn in for the current term on January 3, 2025. Nolley holds no federal office and the Board's list carries nothing about him beyond his party and his filing.
Both men reached November without a real primary. In the March 17, 2026 general primary, LaHood drew 52,914 votes and a write-in, John Kitover, drew 110. Nolley had no Democratic opponent and drew 38,665. Those totals are a first look at the two electorates in a midterm year: about 53,000 votes on the Republican side against about 38,700 on the Democratic side, a gap of roughly 14,400 that points the same way as the general-election record below, though a primary turnout count is not a forecast of November.
Why the Illinois 16th District Price Treats LaHood as Safe
What the price is saying is that the 16th has not produced a close House race in either election held since 2022, and that a new Democratic nominee is not expected to change that in one cycle. The State Board of Elections' 2022 general-election totals show LaHood with 197,621 votes to 100,325 for Democrat Elizabeth "Lisa" Haderlein, about two votes for every one. In 2024 the Democrats did not field a candidate. The Clerk of the House's statistics for the November 5, 2024 election list LaHood with 310,925 votes and a write-in candidate, Scott Summers, with 183.
That 2024 line is the clearest single fact behind the board. A party that left the seat uncontested two years ago is now contesting it, which is a change in effort, but the venues are treating it as a change that does not reach the result. Nolley has to build a coalition from a 2022 Democratic base of about 100,000 votes toward a number that would beat an incumbent who drew nearly 198,000 in the same year.
On October 23, 2026, Polymarket had the Republican contract at 96%, the cheapest Yes on that side, with Kalshi at 97%. Polymarket also had the Democratic contract at 3% against Kalshi's 5%. That means both venues see the 16th as a safe Republican seat, and the one-to-two-point gaps between them are the width of thin books, not a disagreement about who wins. A week earlier, on October 16, 2026, Polymarket had the Republican side at 97% and the Democratic side at 3%, so the board barely moved across the week in which early voting opened on October 19.
The money on this board has gone the other way from the price. As of October 23, 2026, Polymarket had matched about $71K on the race, of which about $40K was on the Democratic contract; Kalshi had matched about 33,800 contracts, about 22,600 of them on the Democratic side. More money on the long shot than on the favorite is common on lopsided boards, where a small position on a cheap contract costs little, and it is consistent with traders taking a flyer on Nolley rather than with a market that has moved toward him. It is also among the busiest Illinois House boards on both venues, which gives its price more weight than a board where a few hundred dollars can move the line.
The Case Against the Illinois 16th District Read
The strongest case against the read is that the 2024 result says almost nothing about a contested race, because an uncontested incumbent's total measures who showed up, not who would have voted for a Democrat. A reader who holds the counterread would point out that the price leans on a single contested result from 2022, four years and one midterm cycle old by Election Day, and that a midterm electorate is smaller and shaped differently from a presidential one, so a safe incumbent's margin can shrink without any change in the district's lean.
The primary numbers give that view something to stand on. Nolley's 38,665 unopposed votes in March are a respectable floor for a party that had no nominee two years earlier, and a midterm that energizes Democratic voters across Illinois, where the governor's and Senate races share the ballot, raises turnout in every district at once. On the State Board of Elections' list, JB Pritzker and Darren Bailey head the governor's race and Juliana Stratton and Don Tracy the Senate race, so every voter in the 16th has two statewide contests on the same ballot as the House race.
The answer the price gives is scale. Even if the swing ran double digits against LaHood, a district he carried by close to 100,000 votes in 2022 would still be his. The counterread needs something specific to the 16th, such as an independent poll showing a single-digit race or a fundraising report showing Nolley with money to compete, before it moves a board that sits in the mid-90s on both venues.
What Changes the Illinois 16th District Read
The read is wrong if the 16th turns out to be competitive rather than merely contested. These are the dated, observable conditions:
• Public polling: An independent survey of LaHood and Nolley before November 3, 2026 showing a race within single digits would be the first direct evidence against the price.
• Campaign money: The Federal Election Commission's pre-general reports, due October 22, 2026, show what each campaign raised and has left for the final two weeks.
• Turnout: Early voting at permanent polling places opened October 19, 2026 and runs through November 2; the last day for an election authority to receive a mail-ballot application by mail is October 29.
• Election night: Polls are open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. on November 3, 2026, and each election authority with a website must post its count of uncounted ballots by November 5.
• Counting and certification: Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day and received within 14 days are counted by November 17, county canvasses close by November 24, and the State Board of Elections proclaims the results by December 4, 2026.
When the Illinois 16th District Market Resolves
Kalshi lists the race as its KXHOUSERACE-IL16-26 contracts. The Republican contract resolves Yes if the House member sworn in for IL-16 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, and the Democratic contract on the same test for the Democratic Party. Kalshi lists January 4, 2027 as the expected settlement and makes the contracts eligible for an earlier determination once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner. Polymarket's IL-16 House Election Winner market resolves on the party of the candidate who wins the seat in the November 3, 2026 election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting, and on the Federal Election Commission's official results if there is ambiguity. A candidate's party is the ballot-listed affiliation, and with only a Democrat and a Republican on the State Board of Elections' list, a winner settles exactly one side on each venue.
Related Illinois Markets
The 16th shares the November ballot with the statewide races on the Illinois governor odds and Illinois Senate odds pages. Among the House boards, the Illinois 17th District odds page covers the Democratic-held seat that Republican Dillan S. Vancil is contesting, and the Illinois 8th District odds and Illinois 11th District odds pages cover two suburban Democratic seats. The Illinois elections page lists every race on the ballot.
