Stratton Wins Durbin's Senate Seat in a Race the Market Never Priced as Open

Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton will be Illinois's next U.S. senator after defeating Republican Don Tracy on November 3, 2026, and the Illinois Senate election results 2026 came in the way the market had said they would: the Associated Press called the race as soon as the polls closed, Capitol News Illinois reported, for the seat Sen. Dick Durbin has held for three decades and is leaving. As of November 5, 2026 the count is unofficial.

With 73% of votes counted at 10 p.m. on election night, Stratton had 61% to Tracy's 37%, a margin of about 788,000 votes out of more than 1.8 million counted, with Whitfield Harrington of the American Center Party third at 1.6%, according to Capitol News Illinois. By Wednesday morning, November 4, Block Club Chicago reported that Stratton still held 61% with 93% of the vote counted. Tracy told supporters in Springfield at about 10 p.m. that he had called Stratton to congratulate her.

What the Senate Market Had Priced Going In

The board treated the open seat as a Democratic hold from the first day this site read it. On the evening of November 2, 2026, Kalshi had the Democratic Party at 99% to win the seat, the cheaper of the two venues, while Polymarket had it at 99.4%. On the Republican side, Polymarket had Tracy's party at 0.7% and Kalshi at 2%. That means the market put a Republican win at less than one chance in 100 the day before the vote, and the 7 p.m. call matched it.

Over the last three weeks the cheapest Democratic price ranged only from 98% to 99%. Polymarket had the Democrats at 98% on October 16 and October 23 and at 99% on October 19 and October 29, each time below Kalshi, before Kalshi's 99% was the lower of the two on November 2. Nothing in the campaign's final three weeks moved the cheapest price by more than a point, which means the late campaign was played out against a price that had almost no room left to move.

Trading was lighter than on the governor's race. On November 5, 2026, Kalshi counted 123,288 contracts traded on the Senate market over its life, 25,900 of them in the previous 24 hours, and Polymarket counted $51.2K traded. Both venues quoted the Democratic contract at 100% by November 5, 2026 and the market is listed as resolved, which means the near-certain price before the vote has gone to its settlement value. The board is on the Illinois Senate market.

Why an Open Seat Never Looked Open

An open Senate seat usually invites a contest, and this one had a crowded primary: Stratton beat U.S. Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly, among others, for the Democratic nomination, and she was helped there by 10 million dollars from Gov. JB Pritzker's political fund, Capitol News Illinois reported. The general election was different. Capitol News Illinois noted that no Republican has won a statewide office in Illinois since 2014, and Tracy, though he was the only Republican statewide candidate to run television advertising, was not able to change that.

The market's read rested on that record rather than on the candidates. A 99% price on a seat with no incumbent is the market saying the state's partisan lean, not the nominee, decides the outcome, and that a national climate favoring Democrats, which Capitol News Illinois described on election night, made a Republican upset less likely still. The read was right about the winner. What it could not price was whether Stratton would run ahead of or behind Pritzker at the top of the ticket; on the election-night numbers, the two ran within a point or two of each other.

Who the New Senator Is

Stratton, 61, has been lieutenant governor since 2019, serving under Pritzker for the past eight years; before politics she founded a consulting firm and served as an arbitrator and administrative law judge, according to Capitol News Illinois. Her win makes her the second Black woman to represent Illinois in the Senate after Carol Moseley Braun, and, with Sen. Tammy Duckworth, Illinois becomes the first state to have two women of color serving in the Senate at once, the same report said. In her victory speech, quoted by Block Club Chicago, she said she would walk into the Capitol "two months from now."

Tracy, a Springfield lawyer, chaired the Illinois Republican Party from 2021 to 2024 and, earlier, chaired the Illinois Gaming Board from 2015 to 2019 after an appointment by former Gov. Bruce Rauner, Capitol News Illinois reported. The Board he once led is now under a federal order in the prediction-market litigation, which this site covered in the Illinois appeal of the Kalshi injunction.

Stratton's departure from the lieutenant governor's office was already settled by the governor's race: Christian Mitchell, Pritzker's running mate this year, is the lieutenant governor-elect, as covered in the governor's result.

What the Two Campaigns Argued About

Both nominees said affordability was their first issue and disagreed on how to address it, according to Capitol News Illinois. Stratton proposed raising the federal minimum wage to 25 dollars an hour from 7.25 dollars, where it has stood since 2009, and a tax cut for middle-income earners paid for by a higher rate on people making at least 1 million dollars a year; she also backs Medicare for All, said she would not vote to confirm any Cabinet or Supreme Court nominee of President Donald Trump, and said she would not support Sen. Chuck Schumer for another term as the Senate Democrats' leader. Tracy blamed taxes and spending by Democrats for the cost of living, called himself a pragmatic conservative, and argued that the minimum-wage proposal would hurt small businesses and raise prices.

None of those positions reached the price. The market's question was which party would hold the seat, and on that question the campaign's arguments were weighed against a statewide record in which, by Capitol News Illinois's count, a Republican had not won statewide office in Illinois since 2014. The answer Kalshi gave at 99% on November 2, 2026, the cheaper of the two venues that evening, was the answer the voters gave a day later, which is why the debate over wages and taxes will matter in the Senate rather than in the price.

What Is Still Pending

The figures above are unofficial. Under the State Board of Elections' calendar, every election authority with a website had to post the number of ballots still uncounted within 48 hours of the polls closing, a deadline that falls on November 5, 2026, and November 10, 2026 is the last day for a provisional voter to submit information that verifies a registration. The Chicago Board of Elections has 21 days to finalize the city's results and turnout, CBS News Chicago reported, and late-arriving mail ballots are still being tallied, according to Block Club Chicago.

None of that changes the winner; it will settle the final margin. The earlier story on this race, Obama's endorsement of Stratton, found the market had already called the seat before that endorsement, and the result confirms it. The next dated beat in the count is the November 10 provisional deadline, followed by the county canvasses that turn election-night returns into official ones. The rest of the statewide ballot is on the Illinois elections page.