Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings 
Polymarket
Kalshi
Detroit Lions
Green Bay PackersTwo Division Losses Put the Bears Third in an NFC North Race Minnesota Leads
The Bears NFC North odds for 2026 put the 2025 division champion third in a four-club race, and the market rests on the two division games Chicago has already lost rather than on its overall record. The Bears are 3-2, level with Green Bay and Detroit, but they are 0-2 in the NFC North. On October 16, 2026 Kalshi and Polymarket both had Chicago at 19% to win the division, which means the market treats the title as a long way back for a club that would need to beat the clubs ahead of it to reclaim it. The Bears play their home games at Soldier Field in Chicago, and two of their four remaining division games are there: Green Bay on December 25 and Detroit on January 3, 2027.
How the NFC North Board Orders the Four Clubs
Minnesota is the favorite but not an odds-on one. Polymarket had the Vikings at 45% on October 16, 2026, a point under Kalshi's 46%, so the market gives the only unbeaten club in the division a little less than an even chance of finishing first. Minnesota is 5-0 and 2-0 in the division, with a 39-22 home win over Green Bay on September 13 and a 9-3 win at Soldier Field on September 20, and it has allowed 64 points in five games, the fewest in the NFC.
Detroit is second on price despite the same 3-2 record as Chicago. Polymarket had the Lions at 27% on October 16, 2026, against Kalshi's 28%. The difference between Detroit and Chicago is the division column: Detroit has not played a division game and has all six in front of it, two against Minnesota among them, while Chicago has already lost two of its six. What the price is saying is that an unplayed division game is worth more than a lost one, and that Detroit controls more of its own path than the Bears do.
Green Bay is last on price: Kalshi and Polymarket both had the Packers at 10% on October 16, 2026, even though the Packers beat Chicago 31-7 on October 11. They are 3-2, 1-1 in the division, and they have allowed more points than they have scored, 112 against 104. The board does not read the win over the Bears as the measure of the Packers; it reads the loss at Minnesota and the margin.
The Bears' own contract is the most heavily traded on the board, on both venues. Kalshi had matched about 2.86 million contracts on the NFC North market through October 16, 2026, about 1.39 million of them on Chicago's contract, more than on Minnesota's, and Polymarket had traded about $96K, about $69K of it on the Bears.
What the Bears NFC North Price Rests On
The structure of the race explains the price. Division ties are broken first by head-to-head results and then by division record, and Chicago has spent both of its first two chances. The loss to Minnesota means the Bears can at best split the season series with the Vikings, and the loss at Green Bay means they need the December 25 rematch just to draw level with the Packers head to head.
The Bears' scoring margin is better than the price suggests. Chicago has scored 119 points and allowed 96, the best margin of the three 3-2 clubs in the division. But 22 points of that margin came in the 59-37 win at Carolina in Week 1, and in the two division games the Bears scored ten points in total. The market treats the division games as the better evidence, and they are the games the title is decided by.
The quarterback is the other variable. Caleb Williams started the Minnesota game and was hurt in it, a torn right hamstring that has kept him out of three games, and the Green Bay game was played without him. ESPN's note of October 16, 2026 lists him as questionable for the October 18 game at Atlanta. The NFC North price for Chicago is a price on a club that has not had its starter since Week 2 and has lost both division games it has played.
The Bears NFC North Schedule From Here
Chicago's four remaining division games all fall in the last six weeks of the season. The Bears play at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, November 26, host Green Bay on December 25, host Detroit on January 3, 2027, and finish at Minnesota on January 10, 2027.
The rest of the division plays itself first. Detroit hosts Green Bay on October 25 and Minnesota on November 1, Green Bay hosts Minnesota on November 15, and Minnesota hosts Detroit on December 20. Green Bay and Detroit close the season against each other at Lambeau Field on January 10, 2027. By the time the Bears play their third division game, every other club will have played at least four of its six.
That order is a reason the Bears' price can move without the Bears doing anything. If Minnesota wins at Detroit on November 1 and at Green Bay on November 15, the Vikings would be 4-0 in the division with only the Detroit rematch and the Chicago finale left, while the Bears would still be 0-2. If Detroit beats Minnesota twice, the race opens up for every club below the Vikings, Chicago included.
Outside the division, Chicago plays Atlanta, New England, Seattle, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Jacksonville, Miami and Buffalo. Those games decide whether the Bears' record keeps them close enough for the four division games to matter at the end.
The Case Against the Bears NFC North Read
The strongest case against the read is that it prices two games played without Chicago's best version. Williams was hurt during the 9-3 loss to Minnesota, and the 31-7 loss at Green Bay came with Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent at quarterback. If Williams returns at Atlanta, the 2025 Bears, who won the division at 11-6 with a 2-4 record inside it, are the better guide: a division title does not require a winning division record if the overall record is good enough, and the Bears' 2025 title proves it.
The other weak point is Minnesota's place at the top. A 5-0 club that has won its games 39-22, 9-3, 23-16, 15-10 and 23-13 has won more on defense than on margin, and three of its last four wins came by seven points or fewer. If that start is closer to the Vikings' 9-8 finish of 2025 than to a title run, the race is open, and a club with four division games left is in it.
What Changes the Bears NFC North Read
The read would be wrong if Williams returns, the Bears reach the Thanksgiving game at Detroit at 7-3 or better, and Minnesota has lost a division game by then, because the head-to-head and record gaps would both be within reach of the four games left. It would be confirmed if Minnesota is 4-0 in the division after November 15 and Chicago has lost two of its next four games.
• Williams at Atlanta, October 18: the first sign of whether the Bears have their starter for the division games.
• Detroit against Minnesota, November 1: the first meeting of the two clubs priced above Chicago.
• Green Bay against Minnesota, November 15: the Vikings' last division game before the Bears' four begin.
• Chicago at Detroit, November 26, and Green Bay at Chicago, December 25: the two games that set the Bears' head-to-head position with the clubs level on record.
• Chicago at Minnesota, January 10, 2027: the last game of the season and the second against the favorite.
When the NFC North Market Resolves
The market resolves on the club declared NFC North champion for the 2026 regular season, which ends January 10, 2027. Kalshi's Chicago contract pays Yes if Chicago wins the Pro Football NFC North Division, with an expected expiration of January 11, 2027 and a latest expiration of January 25, 2027. Polymarket resolves on the team declared division champion, applies the NFL's official tiebreak procedure if clubs finish level, and resolves to Other if the season is canceled or postponed past 11:59 PM Eastern on January 17, 2027 or no champion is declared by then. A club can clinch before the final week; the contracts pay on the declared champion.
Related Illinois NFC North Markets
The division title is one road into the Bears playoff market, the Bears win total prices the number of wins a division winner usually needs, and the Bears NFC Championship market prices the conference title further down the same road. The sports hub and the markets page list every Illinois board.
